Post-194: Ukraine, 1989 vs. 2014

These numbers are amazing to me:

          Ukraine, 1989 vs. 2013
            When 1989’s figures are 100

            Ukraine’s Population
             1989: 100
             2013: 88

            Ukraine’s GDP [adjusted for inflation]
            1989: 100
            2013: 67

             Ukraine’s Per-capita GDP [adjusted for inflation]
             1989: 100
             2013: 76
 
Ukrainians under age 35 have no memory of (sustained) good times, and even those in their 40s today have no experience of sustained good times during which they were in the labor market. Falling expectations lead to this:

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Population: Ukraine had 51.5 million people in its 1989 census; today, it has 45.5 million. This is all because of low birth rates. The World Bank predicts it will further decline to 36 million by 2050.

GDP: According to this graph (and this one from the World Bank), Ukraine’s real-GDP today is only 67% of its 1989 level. If it had remained exactly the same on a per-capita basis, we would expect Ukraine’s real GDP (“real” meaning adjusted for inflation) to also be 88%of the 1989 level, but it’s a lot lower.

If the average Ukrainian in 1989 made 100 units of money, today (adjusted for inflation) he makes only 76. (=.669/.88).

Everyone knows about the major contraction in the ex-Communist-bloc in the 1990s: I see from the historical data that Ukraine’s economy by 1999 had sunk to a pathetic 39% of its 1989 level. Then there was a period of growth (2000-2007), but the 2008-to-Present worldwide economic problems have caused zero GDP growth since 2007 for that country. In terms of Ukraine’s GDP, 2014’s is about equal to 2006’s. (This is true of a lot of countries.)